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Interesting news from the political scene up here in Scotland. First Minister Alex Salmond has threatened to resign if his budget doesn’t pass. On first hearing this I was surprised, but as you look at the detail it’s probably unlikely he’ll need to do so. Brian Taylor explains it better than I can, but the Conservative party will probably support it having won concessions, the Liberals will probably abstain (sigh), and Labour will vote against. So it should pass.

The backdrop to Salmond’s threat is also well explained by Brian Taylor: Salmond is a grand showman, and a big statement like this makes big headlines. Then there’s the fact that his resignation alone won’t lead to a dissolution of parliament, that needs a 2/3 vote or no new First Minister after 28 days. Finally, and most importantly, there are the raw politics that lie behind it all: The SNP have increased their popularity (or, so far at least, not screwed up on anything), so the other parties must be accutely aware that they will need a lot more time to wear down the SNP, before they can expect to do well in an election. From where I’m sitting (fences can actually be comfortable), that’s well over four years away.

So if there was an election tomorrow, I’d almost certainly be voting for another party at the list level: The Liberal Democrats, who got my regional list vote last year, have really failed to impress with their (misguided) attempt at forging a strong and distinct name for themselves in opposition, rather than working more closely with the SNP: They share so many policies with the SNP it feels like a betrayal of their supporters values.

Salmond’s threat may be a gesture, but it’s a good one by a politician who seems on top of his game, with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Update

So the budget passed, with the Conservatives supporting the SNP’s budget, and almost every other MSP abstaining. Not exactly surprising to hear the threat to resign was roundly criticised. However, I still quite liked the bravado and confidence it showed, and that there was clear compromise between two party’s demonstrates that minority government can work, further showing that all of our votes are all the more valuable with this system.

I’m not altogether surprised, or disappointed, to see Menzies Campbell has quit as leader of the Liberal Democrats. It was clear to everybody that he was in a tough spot, and the age issue, plus the lack-lustre Commons performances were repeated so frequently by the Westminster media village, it was bound to affect him.

Personally though I think the rot set in after the recent elections, particularly with regards their support here in Scotland. My problem is that after the election kicking the Lib Dems received at the hands of the SNP, they became so damned incalcitrant about entering into a coalition with the SNP. They were insistent on licking their wounds, and perhaps just fancied a bit of nay-saying and opposition, rather than doing as I’d hoped and entering into coalition and trying to get some more things actually done. Local income tax being one key example of where the SNP and Lib Dems agreed. Sure there’s talk of ’support’ for such, but it’s still very huffy.

I suppose here in Scotland there’s the question of what purpose the Lib Dems serve if not to be the King Makers? As the party that pushes for proportional representation at Westminster, they should be the ones trying to build that “new politics” where differences and tit-for-tat polemic are put aside and common goals agreed on after the public have cast their vote. If they couldn’t even demonstrate how it’s done here in Scotland, what hope for Westminster? And this from me as a supporter of PR there.

Cameron and Brown have clearly made moves on the Lib Dem vote. The centre-ground has certainly been a very crowded place for some time now. With that nebulous ‘Middle England’ being lured by the tax-cuts of Cameron (not many of his other key policies, it’s interesting to note), and suspicious about Brown after his bodged Election/Taxation moves of the last couple of weeks, you’d think the Liberal Democrats should be able to make something for themselves. But plummeting poll ratings as the big-beasts battle it speak of a wider malaise with the third party, and Cambell must have realised there was no hope if he couldn’t push a distinctive and clear voice. Death by a thousand cuts.

Nick Robinson’s newslog post makes excellent points (as ever), especially that ‘third time lucky?‘ is not to be underestimated. Can whomever wins as leader really carve out a distinctive identity for the Lib Dems in the 18 months or so before the next election? I fear not (or at least one that is palatable, especially if flagrant tax-cuts are purely where elections are to be won). I’d also be worried about the wafer thin constituency majority’s commanded by one of the proffered candidates (Chris Huhne – 568 votes!) giving an easy/early scalp.

So my vote will probably go elsewhere, at least until they rediscover their identity and purpose, and can really start to behave as genuine proponents of PR and all that it implies.

One of the three local councillors here in Pollokshields caught me by surprise recently, by actually taking the time out to thank his electorate for electing him. A nice touch, certainly that I’ve certainly never encountered before, and one I think would be well to see repeated in wards around the country to perhaps in a little way, help tackle the cynicism and apathy many voters feel.

The councillor is David Meikle, the only Conservative on Glasgow council (traditionally dominated by Labour). He’s new to it all too, so his weblog should make for interesting reading.

Whilst I don’t agree with all that comes from the Conservative party, it’s great to see some real variety in the council make up now, and I wish David all the best, and hope the thoughtful note of thanks helps him with the considerable challenges he’s sure to face in the coming years.

I moved to Scotland about three years ago, but have been coming here on and off over the last 15 years. Since moving here I was keen to learn more about the country’s history, but hadn’t quite found the time in my reading schedule to fit such a book in. Whilst browsing in a bookshop recently though, I came across Magnus Magnusson’s ‘Scotland: The story of a nation’. Yes, he of Mastermind fame who died earlier this year. The book struck me as ideal – a balanced and enjoyable writing style that covered subjects well without being overwhelmed with facts – so I added it to my next purchase from amazon.

My knowledge of Scottish History, indeed of British History, was a victim of my GCSE history curriculum’s focus on 20th century history (Third Reich; Soviet Russia; Cold War), and the rather disjointed curriculum my schools followed in the years preceeding my GCSE’s. We seemed to lunge about history as we moved up through the school, and only my general interest ensured I had a knowledge outside of what was covered. But to say I had a good knowledge of history would be to overstate the case.

That’s not to say my GCSE History curriculum wasn’t good. It was. Key skills, and relevance to the time, continue to serve me well: In particular our teacher was very keen to emphasise “Understanding sources”, and explaining bias. The lessons stuck with me, and of course remain of great use when reading the press.

But I digress. The point I’m making is I didn’t really feel I had a solid understanding of British History, and that (for somebody growing up in Somerset) means primarily English history. Scottish History really didn’t feature other than from asides from Scottish friends regarding the numerics following Monarchs… I’m not sure I even knew who William Wallace was until I visited Edinburgh or saw Braveheart (and that film is not really a good foundation!). I certainly didn’t realise that Macbeth was actually based on an actual Scottish King. There may have been mention in classes of the Scottish influences, relationships and conflicts, but it certainly didn’t get presented as significant, so much of it just passed me by.

So in reading the book, I’m quite sure I chose one of the most readable and well-written histories of Scotland that’s has been put together in recent years. This was not a dry history tome, but an enjoyable book with a strong narrative feel, and plenty of interesting asides, footnotes and references. Of particular note are the asides regarding what currently can be seen of historic locations, venues and remains that have inspired me to perhaps do a spot more research before we head out on a trip to see what can be seen along the way.

The ‘Epilogue’ was interesting as it dealt with the 20th century developments, including the political forces at work from Communism, through to Scottish Nationalism’s changing fortune. Of course the latest news of the SNP winning power doesn’t feature, but adds a particular relevancy to the history

So I’m pretty confident I now better understand some of the key themes, people and events that occur in Scottish history. The Jacobite uprisings in particular weren’t something I fully understood, or who and what The Conventanters were. I’m left feeling that Robert the Bruce isn’t entirely deserving of the praise he receives (striking me more as a political opportunist than anything else), and I feel I better understand why the “English” civil war involved Scotland, and why both the Union of the Crowns occured in 1603.

I’m left feeling that Scotland was rather poorly served by many of it’s historic leaders, and that the ‘Auld alliance’ with France was little more than a diversionary tactic for France when at war with England, other than occasional loans of troops and ships. The most defining event is, perhaps, the 1707 Union with England – something that is increasingly relevant and topical today. Better understanding the political, religious and economic factors (before as well as after) is very helpful.

Harry Truman said “Those who do not read and understand history are doomed to repeat it“. I certainly think that everybody is better served by understanding the history of their country and how it has shaped, and been shaped by, the world we now inhabit. A history book this well constructed, informative and simply enjoyable to read really is a rare thing, and I can strongly recommend it to anybody who might want to improve their understanding of Scotland’s history.

Slightly overlooked in all the hoo-ha about the Scottish Parliament election results is Scotland was also voting for local councillors, and it’s been argued before that councillors – not MSP’s or MP’s – have a more direct impact on daily lives.

I’d previously commented that there wasn’t much information available about the various candidates. Judging by some of the comments and e-mails I’ve received, and conversations I’ve held, there’s a general frustration with councillors (and candidate MSP’s for that matter) for relying on flyers-through-the-door rather than grasping the nettle and putting together a useful internet presence, much less cutting through the party-speak and giving us strong reasons to support them other than what colour rosette they’re wearing.

The one exception to this was David Meikle, who I’m actually quite pleased to say is now one of three Pollokshields councillors, and did receive one of my votes. Given my other choices didn’t get through, I like to think it helped him in some way. The full result breakdown is available at Glasgow Council’s website.

I’m hopeful David keeps up his weblog and embraces is at as a useful – and direct – way of staying in touch with his ward. Right now he’s the only Pollokshields councillor with his own internet forum. The SNP councillor Khalil Malik, and the Labour councillor Irfan Rabbani don’t have any presence of note. Heck, google searches come to my own website. Do they really want that? (See for yourself: Rabbani search and Malik search). I’m can’t help but conclude that they’re just riding on the reputation of their party rather than trying to distinguish themselves in their own right?

As to the overall council result, sadly Glasgow council remains with Labour, and by some way too. There’s certainly much much better opposition representation (which is what I was voting for!), but I fear it’s a long way away from moving it to a no-overall-control, much less another party in power. I hope that Labour take note that they’re only just control an absolute majority (56%) of seats. I also hope that Glasgow voters pay particular attention to how they go over the next four years, in particular how tax is dealt with next year, and how they manage the expenditure – especially with the ominous commonwealth games bid.

“Adequate” or “Acceptable” is really no basis, in my view, for re-electing a council, and they’ve barely been that in the few years I’ve been here. They need to be impressing us and deserving of our vote, getting in by default through the fact that they’ve got a red-rosette pinned to their lapel is really not a mandate to be proud of.

Something that has puzzled me since it became apparent that rejected ballots were going to be one of the major stories from the recent election, was the lack of solid examples of what form the rejected ballots were taking.

As a result, we had politicians weighing in with broad statements. Whilst they or there representatives were, I’d imagine, present at the count, I’m grateful for Pat the Chooks who was an observer during the voting process, and provides some welcome detail:

During the count, the reason for this high rate became obvious: the majority of rejected parliamentary papers had two votes in the left-hand, the regional, column and no vote in the right-hand, the constituency, column. Candidates and agents were drawing the conclusion that voters were being misled by the instruction at the head of the sheet of paper, which read, “You have 2 votes …”.

Also many blamed the concurrent STV system, but Pat notes that the electorate seemed ok with that. Indeed, spoilt ballots on the STV system were much smaller. In my ward of Pollokshields, part of the Glasgow council election 149 out of 9567 – that’s 1.6% were rejected, much closer to ‘normal’.

It’s a shame that the sample ballot the press are seemingly obliged to show seems so clear and, well, concise. Here in Glasgow the regional ballot was huge, and the print quality wasn’t especially crisp. I’m also decidedly unimpressed with party names being abused (eg. “Alex Salmond for 1st Minister – SNP” to get them at the top of the list (More on this from Doctor Vee)).

Others have noted that the comment “you have TWO votes”, on one piece of paper was particular vague. However, it comes down to educating the voter ahead if time what the difference is between constituency and regional votes.

It’s Pat’s conclusion that “the problem with the process is not the electorate, as some have asserted, nor the voting paper, but the failure properly to inform and educate the electorate how MSPs are elected and why the regional vote matters.“. On the whole I agree: Educating people about the mechanics of the democratic system has to be for the better.

What’s clear is STV worked, and so did the counting systems (if rather slowly: They should be fixed/improved, but we shouldn’t allow the Luddites to force a return to manual counting), but the MSP election was badly messed up by poorly considered ballot layout, and insufficient effort to inform the public ahead of time. Education, Education, Education? Who said that then?

Well the first thought is the same as many people, and mentioned early on when doing my first ‘liveblog’ as the first results came in, and that’s the horrendous number of ‘rejected’ ballots.

Whilst a lot has already been said, I’m not sure it’s necessarily fair to say that the two elections on the same day were entirely to blame. The ‘dual purpose’ ballot paper for MSP’s was confusingly laid out. A bad setup in my view, and some improved layout or at least separate ballot papers would have helped.

When it came to voting, whilst we were at a busy time, I did feel a little rushed. Not good. Nobody was obviously available to help people when I voted, and the clerks issuing the papers didn’t seem too keen to be explaining things. In one of the declarations too there were accusations, which I understand implied that many anti-SNP newspapers were being “read”. That’s deserving of criticism and hopefully people are brought to book on the matter.

Running the local, and council elections (with the STV system) on a separate day might help, but I can’t help wonder whether the number of people voting would be much smaller than the number of spoilt ballots. It’s a tricky dilemma to hopefully take more votes, but with more mistakes, versus fewer votes caused by a lower-profile election? It’s clearly not going to be that simple, but there is a risk of apathy with too many elections.

As to the result itself, the SNP win is what I’d hope for. Sure, I disagree with independence, but hope that the change at the top happens. It’s by no means certain. Labour could form a coalition themselves – they just need one more Green party member and they’re there. It’s also irresponsible, in my view, that the Conservatives are refusing to enter into coalition talks, talking of an issue-by-issue decision. Not what the electoral system is encouraging, and seems a bit pig-headed to me.

For the first ever time in 16 years of voting, my choice of constituency representative won. I did vote for Ken Livingston for London Mayor, but it’s not quite the same. I like to think that the voters of Govan were the people behind the victory – it was a very tight race (744 majority) here. If Labour had won Govan they might well be in the lead. Of course, the maths behind the regional votes doesn’t make it quite as simple as that, but it’s a nice thought. In talking to my normally Tory voting neighbour before and after the election, it seems my comments about voting tactically changed his mind, and he voted for Sturgeon too, despite not being a big fan. Maybe that’s what’s been behind it?

I’ve also come to the obvious realisation that Glasgow is painfully hard-core Labour. Sturgeon’s win is the first SNP win in Glasgow. A look at the regional votes highlights that. 38% of the vote was Labour. 27% SNP. But Labour have 9 of the 10 constituency seats. Thank goodness for the proportional setup.

Glasgow council also remains Labour, which is disappointing. People seem to have bought in to the council tax freeze. Still, there’s much better opposition representation on the council, so hopefully that’ll encourage a more bipartisan approach.

Four party politics certainly works in Labour’s favour at all levels. The votes are divided out amongst the alternatives, and the core-vote of Labour can’t be overturned that way. But of course no party is going to back down, and the uninterrupted rule of Labour is going to continue(It’s been Labour since the 1930’s – I fail to see how that’s in the slightest bit healthy). Perhaps until people stop voting by tradition, and start thinking about the issues before them.

As an excellent piece at the Guardian weblog argues, the press mauling of the SNP is nothing short of a travesty. Expressing a preference is one thing – and papers are entitled to do that – but emotive and intemperate language is entirely inappropriate. I just hope the SNP get a chance to prove the papers wrong.

Anyway, the next week or so is going to be interesting as the parties try to sort out coalitions and agendas. I doubt we’ll be seeing an independence referendum. The rules are that if a first minister isn’t appointed in 30 days, it’s back to the ballot box. Hopefully with a clearer ballot layout this time. But I hope that’s not the case, and the SNP are able to at least make a go of it. I’d also expect that if the parliament fails within a year, and we get to vote again, the electorate will hold Labour and the Liberal Democrats to book, and the SNP share of the vote might actually increase.

That’s still a big if, and I hope I’m wrong. I certainly hope they get a chance to deliver on their key policies. One thing is for sure though, the real politics is only just beginning.

I’m going to be up to the small hours as the election results come in. I’ll be updating some key thoughts along the way, and – perhaps in a first serious use of the service, I’ll also be twittering reasonably extensively on the subject too.

• 04:00am – Right. That’s me. Counts are taking an age in too many places, including Glasgow and Edinburgh, there are high numbers of rejected ballots, and the regional votes are an unknown quantity. Figure I’m as well to get some sleep to be lucid enough to listen to the news tomorrow morning.
• 03:49am – Just as I’m about to give up, in comes the Glasgow Govan vote and Nicola Sturgeon has won with a marjority of 744. Well, I got the main result I was after, so pleased there. Only the first time in a constituency vote that that has happened. I’m normally voting for the party that comes 2nd….
• 01:09am – Kelvin held by Labour, but another massive number of spoilt papers. 1,100 or so, up from only 100. Brian Taylor is bang on to be emphasising this as a critical issue that needs as much investigation as much as any postal ballot. Close number of spoilt papers to the majority in Kelvin, even.
• 00:50am – Wishaw result has a huge number (Somewhere around 1,000) of spoiled ballots (not shown on BBC site though), perhaps confusion from the two different systems. But worrying none the less.
• 00:31am – Wishaw result in and it’s a Labour hold for (hopefully) the former First Minister Jack McConnell. Quite safely, but a worrying four figure vote for the nut-jobs in the Scottish Christian Party. I’d rather have McConnell than a feverish xtian preaching their perverse and selective selection of religious fiction.
• 00:10am – The Guardian has an excellent criticism of press mauling dealt out to the SNP that’s well worth a read.
• 11:50pm – Talk of a result due from Motherwell and Wishaw due soon. Sheridan in the BBC1 studio with the biggest rosette I’ve seen all campaign. Seems quite cheerful.
• 11:42pm – BBC1 talking of upwards of 60% turnout today. Great weather and a tight campaign. Re-run of Jeremy Vine’s overview of Scottish system mentioning my constituency again. Looking good. Counting machines seem to be giving a running score to monitors, so hopefully some read-between-the-line hints about key constituencies.
• 11:15pm – Douglas Alexander (Scottish Secretary) sticking to the negative message put out by Labour throughout this campaign.
• 11:12pm – Alex Salmond on BBC1 Scotland quite right to be saying the SNP ran the best campaign. They hit the ground running, and had the most positive national campaign.
• 11:09pm – BBC1 talking of my constituency MSP seat Govan going to the SNP – Which is the result I’m hoping for to unseat the Labour MSP.
• 11pm – Douglas Alexander spinning Labour painful to behold on BBC2, and Ian Paisley follows. And some horrific 1970’s Scottish oddness on BBC1 ahead of the Scottish coverage. Sky News talking about SNP targets…

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We went to vote when Frances got back from work, and it was easily one of the busiest polling locations I’ve ever been to, and perhaps the least enjoyable actual voting experiences. I suppose it’s partly because we were going at peak time – everybody coming back from work – but also because it’s a large ward, and I don’t think there are too many polling stations.

Some of the candidates, or at least their supporters, are deserving of some specific criticism: Whilst I normally feel quite comfortable, excited even, to be voting, this time I felt mobbed. Whilst the big “main” candidates weren’t very pushy – discretely hanging out by the front door – supporters I think were from some other parties descended on us. It almost felt more like Bangkok than Pollokshields. I’d prefer to have seen a bit of distance kept allowing people to proceed without having to refuse leaflets.

Rather surprisingly too was the police officer stationed just inside the main door (I should stress he was not inside the polling station itself!). A reassuring presence to be sure, but also the first time I recall seeing a policeman anywhere nearby. It was certainly very busy – There were different desks for different roads. They were using all of the space in what is essentially the local town hall.

The new voting system seemed ok and straight forward when you got down to voting. But I’m certainly no fan of the new ballot boxes which are designed to discourage folding of the paper (which is to be counted automatically). You’re sliding the ballot into the box as if you’re putting a single sheet of paper in to a printer, and the existing ballots seem to clog things up. Certainly not very good, and I’m struggling to see why the boxes are as small as they are.

Anyway, specific negatives aside, it all got done and I suppose it went well enough. If the number of people we passed on the way there and back is anything to go by – the weather certainly helped – I’m at least half hopeful there will be a decent turnout.

Last but not least, my regional vote (Council and Constituency details here). This is for the additional members to the Scottish parliament, on top of the constituency MSP’s we elect.

The idea is that these MSP’s are allocated to ensure that each region has MSP’s from parties in proportion to how they vote. Thus is ALL of the constituency MSP’s happen to come from Party A, but 1/3rd of the votes are for Party B and another 1/3rd for Party C, the additional MSP’s come from Party’s B and C to ensure the total representation for the region matches the populist vote. Each party puts forward a list of candidates, in order, and unless the candidate already has a constituency seat, they are through based on the additional member system. Here’s a worked example.

To cut a long story short, I’m probably going to vote Liberal Democrat at the regional list. This is the party I generally find myself supporting. I could give my reasons for not voting otherwise, but I’ve already beaten that issue to death. I’m still giving a Green vote some consideration, but I’ve a view to coalition discussions after the election and of course the Liberal Democrats are likely to be the ‘king makers’, and have themselves talked about more powers to the parliament, which I support. Some of the more radical policies so far to come from Holyrood are as a result of the Liberal Democrats.

That’s it for now. It’s a beautiful evening, and I’m just in the mood for a gentle stroll down to the ‘Polling Place’ (For some reason they’re not called ‘Stations’ up here, as they are in England) to make my marks. Then it’ll be back for dinner, and feet up ready for the election results.

And yes, I’m the sort of political junkie who’ll be staying up to soak up the election coverage. Oh, and probably try and get plenty of Piano practice in the waiting!