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I’m delighted to finally be able to announce the launch date of the Glasgow parkrun: A free, weekly timed 5k around Pollok Park. This joins the 10 other parkrun events that take place around the UK, and is the first parkrun event in Scotland. 

The provisional start date we’ve agreed with Pollok park management is Saturday, 6th December at 9.30am, outside the Burrell museum. The all important sociable coffee and chat follows in the Burrell cafe. The parkrun occurs every week at the same time. Plenty more at: 

http://www.parkrun.com/glasgow_home.aspx 

If you want to take part in this, or any of the other parkrun events, you just need to register with parkrun before your first event: http://register.parkrun.com/ - It’s a one-off process. No need to repeat each week. 

parkrun’s are run entirely by volunteers, so please get in touch if you’d like to help. You might be racing later in the day, want to give something back to the running community, or be recovering from injury and want to stay in touch with running friends. 

We’re particularly keen to get names down for the first few weeks as the event establishes itself. See the Volunteer tab, drop me an e-mail, post a comment, or speak to me in person. 

A bit more on the parkrun idea follows below.

Regards, 

Richard Leyton and Iain Brown, Event Directors  Read the rest of this entry »

I’m delighted to hear, and fully intend to support, the creation of a new ‘Friends of Pollok Park’ group that will be launching after the Save Pollok Park meeting (Tuesday 28th October at 7.30pm, at Pollokshaws Burgh Hall, opposite Pollok Park). Members of Kelvingrove Park’s Friends Group will be along to explain how they operate. A constructive supporters group should be a great asset to the park. I’ve myself put forward one or two ideas as to how the park could be improved, without recourse to commercially focused development, and hope they’ll be considered at the public meeting next week.

The Save Pollok Park meeting that precedes it should be interesting too, as it’ll be covering the legal arguments as to why the Go Ape lease can’t be granted, and updating supporters as to progress and strategies. Hopefully a constructive series of discussions. 

There’s a petition still open for supporters to sign. It closes next Tuesday, so be sure to get your name down on it before it’s presented to the council.

Robert Peston is a man who rarely seems off the airwaves at the moment, from his Northern Rock news last year, through to his coverage of the financial meltdown we’re seeing today.

Whilst I can’t fault the substance of what he says, and it seems he’s got some substantial contacts, I’ve a few gripes with Mr Pestons presentation style (in particular his elocution), and his seeming self importance, matched solely by seeming self-belief. Most particularly his choice of language can be clumsy, and possibly even self-fulfilling. Watching his body language when being interviewed on television, particularly in the studio when he has to try and sit still for a little while whilst the presenter sets context, is always interesting.

But this exchange on Radio 4’s Today, this morning (at about 7:30 this morning) was delightful, and an example of something I’d suggest are real ‘Pestonisms’:

Evan Davis: Morning Robert, what do we know now [about the Treasury Statement]?

Robert Peston: Well, what we know Evan is that absolutely, well it confirms really, what I’ve been saying for 24 hours. Absolutely colossal sums going into RBS and HBOS. RBS raising £20b from taxpayers. HBOS £11.5b from taxpayers….

‘Pestonisms’ have been mentioned before, but I’d suggest that a true ‘Pestonism’ isn’t purely his spoken style, but also something that captures the raw essence that is Robert Peston.

Other examples gratefully received.

I’ve just stumbled on this marvellous collection of running frustrations at DebsOnWriting. Well worth having a read: If you’ve ever been out running, I’m sure you’ll agree with most - if not all - of the items included! I’ve certainly tried writing my own compilation of frustrations and annoyances, but don’t think I’ll come quite as closed (or anywhere near as well written!).

More here at DebsOnRunning, from the same author.

In my previous financially focused post (link) I expressed frustration at how the media continue to misrepresent the perfectly legitimate practice of ’short selling’. As I was watching the news yesterday (with their on-screen live FTSE and DOW figures), and reading the newspapers again this morning, I was reminded that there are further examples of oversights and simplifications in financial reporting, that all go to make me concerned there are few places to go for solid news (Radio 4, Newsnight and Channel 4 news, largely).

One example is, perhaps, well known. It’s the reporting of the FTSE 100 index figure as some generic financial indicator. Remember, this is just a selected index of a basket of equities (ie. stocks), and it is adjusted over time. Whilst it constitutes about 80% of the total value of the FTSE shares, it is still an equity indicator, and a general purpose one at that. It’s of interest as many people invest in FTSE-100 trackers. Personally I prefer a FTSE-All Share tracker.

In the context of the ‘credit crunch’, equities are not really a particularly good indicator. Whilst it’s clear that share values fluctuates, it doesn’t in itself show very much about the underlying problem that faces financial institutions. Let’s not forget too that in times of doubt there is always a flight of money from equities to fixed income products and commodities (particularly gold). When people sell their equity investments in large numbers, share prices naturally drop (a surfeit of sellers), and it’s likely to see ’safer’ investment values rise (due to limited availability; commodities need digging/drilling!). Just compare the graph for last months gold price, particularly it’s big spike in September 2008, and last months stock market indicator graphs.

Oil prices are an interesting case - they were a solid investment earlier this year - it was doing nothing but rise - but with the doubt and fear about a global recession, oil prices drop over fears about reduced demand. A good thing too, clearly, as the knock-on effect on heating bills has serious consequences for societies most vulnerable members. But let’s forget the halcyon days of less than $25 barrel oil - many of the oil-rich Gulf states are funding huge investments on the basis of (relatively) high (>$75) oil prices. I for one was not in the least bit surprised by the news in early September that OPEC were cutting production. Let us not also remember oil is priced in US$, so as the US$-Sterling rate falls, so oil price rises for us. But it’s not really been mentioned in the media that oil prices are safely below $100 at the moment: It’s been ignored due to other financial events.

So share price drops are inevitable in days of doubt. Investors seek safer shores. In today’s Guardian it’s reported that is also happening with people’s savings, as they move from perceived ‘at risk’ banks to National Savings products and other government backed savings accounts. You’d almost think that the financial professionals are people too! On a side note, the term ‘Masters of the Universe’ used a lot at the moment (in reference to financial high-flyers) comes from The Bonfire of the Vanities, rather than the children’s cartoon series.

Equities are a good indicator of confidence, and the massive dives in recent weeks indicate the failing confidence. The problem was exacerbated, in my mind at least, by an inept US President. By making the announcement that something of that scale was planned so far in advance, expectations were set. Financial institutions felt the cavalry was coming. So when Congress refused to pass the bill in it’s proposed form, expectations were shattered, and confidence plunged.

The other key word is volatility. Prices are moving about as much as they are as investors take differing views on insufficient, inaccurate, incorrect information. Throw in a healthy dose of fear, and you’ve everything you need. One figure that seems to be missing from public resources is traded volume. Prices are naturally volatile when volumes are lower (fewer people competing to sell/buy assets), and I’m curious to find out how traded volume compares in September, with that of previous months or years. Although I suspect the confidence figures remain the dominant factor here.

But as far as measuring the ‘credit crunch’, it’s LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) that’s king. These are the rates at which banks lend to each other over various periods of time. The credit crunch is all about this lending drying up, represented by spikes in the rate, which is normally closer to the Bank of England interest rate. Just yesterday the overnight rate hit 6.87%, compared to the 5% for the Bank of England. This rate is finally getting reported more often by the serious media, but it’s still difficult to find on market data websites.

As we all know the Credit Crunch is about banks not lending to each other, at least without a prohibitive premium. For the ‘real economy’ that means borrowing of any sort are going to be more difficult. As such borrowed money - vital in the short-term - dries up, we can expect to see in the coming months businesses struggling to find money to help them grow, invest or simply get through a difficult patch. When cash runs out, for whatever reason, businesses fail, and jobs start to go. If the complete grid-lock in the finance sector isn’t eased soon, the bad news from successful businesses will start to grow in numbers. Sadly it’s a delayed consequence, which doesn’t sit well with the 24 hours news cycle that seems to demand cause-and-effect to be observable.

So if you want a figure that indicates how the credit crunch is affecting lending, LIBOR is the one to look to. If you want an indicator of confidence and fear, the FTSE figures. Whilst confidence remains so low, and the US government struggles to find the rescue package it needs, I’d expect prices to remain volatile, and many valuable commodities, will rise.

But it’s not all bad news. If, like me, you’re some years away from retirement, take the pragmatic view that lower prices can make for a good buying opportunity. A complete economic meltdown is unlikely as fundamentals are, I think, still quite sound and the crises is still solvable if fingers are extracted and US politicians get a grip and stop playing, er, politics. But look to the other figures for a better indication of what’s going on. It’s certainly not all about what the FTSE or DOW is doing day to day.

There seems to be some bizarre hysteria blowing through the country at the moment: The fear of shorting stocks, and the companies that practice it. The newspapers seem to be all over the mechanism, and journalists seem to be failing in their duty to provide accurate information. Also in the firing line seem to be pension companies, who loan their stock and thereby allows this to happen in the first place, companies that do it, and even various characters who naively stepped in to condemn traders without first checking their own portfolios. 

Unfortunately it seems that a huge amount of misunderstanding is going about, and I fear it may be a similar as with science reporting (See badscience.net, from Saturday Guardian column of the same name). The media is full of journalists (many of whom will necessarily be english/media/journalism graduates) with very little understanding of technical subjects. They are asked to write pieces on subjects they may not have much knowledge or interest in, and then proceed to clamber about the subject with painful naiveté. Unfortunately, their naiveté goes on to misinform huge numbers of people, and hysteria results. 

I’ll give an example of one of most horrifically tenuous pieces of journalism I’ve read in a long while. The Sunday Herald tries to throw some mud at Alec Salmond who made headlines with his “Spivs and Speculators” comment. The Herald has this to say in a piece (link) trying desperately to throw some mud at the SNP:

One of the companies that “short-sells” shares, Morgan Stanley, last year received a £6 million grant from the SNP Government to boost jobs in Glasgow. It has also emerged that the Scottish Government is funding another business, Timberpost, which creates artificial intelligence for short-selling firms.

What can we conclude? Er, Alec Salmond’s government gave grants to companies who employ people and operate on the stock market, or develop software, in a perfectly legal way. I really struggle to understand how that is a problem, or implicates the SNP in anything. It does, however, speak volumes about a journalist who’s trying to eek out a story and latch on to a misplaced fear (largely of their own creation) of a perfectly legal practice.

Can we also (Sunday Herald journalists please pay attention) try and remember that the current ban on short selling applies only to bank stocks and not the practice as a whole. It is NOT inherently bad practice. Quite the contrary, it’s a valuable tool in markets that enables downwards pressure on stocks that may be overvalued for some reason. Look at the hype that surrounds IPO’s and companies that hit the headlines. What if you, as somebody taking a position on the market, disagrees and think there are fundamental problems? Shorting a stock is one of the fundamental ways to do this.

Also, let us not forget that the banks that have been torn to pieces had (it’s now clear) fundamentally poor business models when cheap credit dried up. High risk loans without sufficient deposits, or self-certified mortgages, or even (dare I say it) falling asset values. But house prices never fall, do they? Whilst there is clearly a wider crises exacerbating many of the problems, it’s clear there was and is a shake-out required. 

Pension companies (largely) invest for the long term. Certainly if I’m investing in a fund, I’m indirectly holding an asset (shares) for a period of time. Now that can either sit in the fund, and grow in value and no more. Or the pension company can lend it out and earn money from it, which in turn can be reinvested. It may even add to the yield that helps pay out income funds. There is no risk to the pension company, as the value is associated with the asset itself, and the loaner must return the stock. They’re just oiling the wheels, and making money for their investors in the process. If the value of the asset falls as a result of the shorting, so what? That’s the position the investors took, largely with a longer term view than a 5 year stock market chart in mind. Personally, I’m losing no sleep over the drop in value of my ISA’s, pensions and so forth. I’m taking a 30 year view. I’ll also phase money into bonds as time passes. Because putting all your eggs in one basket (the stock market) is a Bad Thing. 

Now I’m certainly no financial expert. I may have worked in finance for a good few years, and enjoy reading the financial pages of newspapers. There may have been dubious practices going on with some of the short selling. That’s not for me to judge. But what is for me to judge is some of the atrocious reporting going on associated with regards financial issues, not least the inappropriate demonisation of short selling as a practice.

So if relatively simple concepts such as shorting are being mis-reported, stigmatised and pilloried, what hope have we that the really significant financial news dealing with almost $1 trillion of government intervention, is to be accurately portrayed?

Things had been quiet over the summer with regards the Save Pollok Park campaign. The application was with Scottish Ministers (as the council has a financial interest in the proposal), and they were to decide whether to call it in.

Despite the fact that the council didn’t accurately portray the views of their supposed park management partners National Trust for Scotland, the Maxwell family (who bequethed the park to the people of Glasgow), and despite the views of over 5000 people who signed a petition, and despite the fact that the councils ‘consultation’ was woeful in the extreme, and countless other issues, Ministers decided not to call the application in, so it’s been returned to the council to proceed as they see fit (BBC news article here).

Personally, I’m appalled. It smacks of cowardice, a lack of concern, and despite their repeated deferral of a decision, not really understanding the issues and concerns that were being legitimately raised by the Save Pollok Park campaign, and brushed aside by the council. Call me naive too, but the rather populist agenda of the SNP had me thinking they’d surely see the campaigners view point. But I fear budgets may have been a factor, and calling-in notable other planning proposals has become something of a hot potato.

It’s far from over. There are numerous legal avenues to explore, and the campaign is moving forward with these issues. There’s also a new petition, which you can also sign online. This one asserts that the council is acting illegally in proceeding without the agreement of it’s partners in Pollok Park, the NTS and Maxwell family.

More on this whole sorry mess very soon.

One of my intentions with this blog is to make sure I speak out when I experience something positive. I also do the converse and write up bad experiences, and it’s resulted in interesting (not always in a good way) exchanges with individuals and organisations who discover my comments (the joys of a seemingly well linked-to website). Oddly, the positive comments don’t get quite as much comment, presumably because people are rarely motivated to comment on good things. Newspapers don’t sell on good news, after all. So the lack of comment oddly motivates me all the more.

Today, First Scotrail is in need of praise. I’m frequently through to Edinburgh to work with a client. Over the few years I’ve been making the trip, I’ve only once been badly borked (very bad flooding on 7th August at Waverley), and that wasn’t even their fault. A few delays are ok, and I’ve only been forced to stand three or four times. It’s all a lot better, on the whole, than commuter services in London several years ago.

Today, something odd happened. I managed to lose my ticket between the entrance gate at Glasgow Queen Street, and the train. All of 50 metres. I’m baffled. I must have dropped it after passing through the gate. Anyway, it’s long been a fear of mine, and I normally take care. But not today. So I got worried I’d get in trouble with the ticket inspector on the train (always puzzled they come through the train given the turnstiles at the starting station), or at Haymarket where I alight.

I needn’t have worried. By having all my receipts, the return ticket, a recent purchase time, and - perhaps - forgiving staff, they accepted my apology and excuse for not having a ticket. I’d worried they’d apply the letter of the rulebook.

So there you have it. Praise for First Scotrail, in particular the ticket inspector on the 7.30am Glasgow to Edinburgh express service, and the barrier guy at Haymarket at 8.20am, for not being what I feared would be jobs-worths.

I took part in the 2008 Glasgow Half Marathon yesterday. One year on from my first half marathon, a very different runner was hitting the streets of Glasgow. My goal last year had been to run it in a reasonable time, but primarily to get around and justify the sponsorship I’d managed to raise. It was an unknown quantity. But as I enjoyed myself thoroughly, I decided to take my running up a notch and joined a running club.

So a year later, I’d managed to run the Helensburgh half marathon in my buildup, and completed the clubs winter handicap championship (coming second, no less). The Glasgow Half would be the last race for me to complete the main club championship. A total of 15 races over the course of a year.

I’d been training as hard as I could, but hadn’t managed to get quite as many decent long runs in as I’d needed, and this showed in Helensburgh. My goal there had been to get around, but I still managed a time of 1:41:23, a full 11 minutes improvement. I was chuffed to bits, and deliciously close to a 1:40. So that became my target for Glasgow. “Get safely below 1:40″. I figured a 1:37:30 target time would be sensible, but largely dismissed any suggestions of anything faster than that.

The day dawned, and despite heavy rain in the North of England (which had, I think, been expected to move further north), nothing other than grey clouds and a breeze hit Glasgow. Nice for a change, but perfect running weather. I took no chances though and took all the appropriate precautions (close inspection of the Helensburgh photographs will reveal why), and headed in to town with Frances (who was going to dart around the course and take pictures).

After a brief warmup, I joined the starting area. I was in the white group (ie. the first section to start). Last year I was in the green area (third group to start), so felt like quite a step up. Ahead of us loomed St Vincent Street, which seemed to get steeper and stepper as the start time approached. The course was different this year due to road works, so we had an incline up St Vincent Street, over the M8 to Finnieston, then up an off-ramp and onto the M8.

Whilst trying to ignore Jimmy Saville who seemed to do nothing more than wave, the start seemed like quite an anti-climax, and after the usual big race jostling (reminding me why I prefer smaller club-run races) it was off up St Vincent Street. I’d largely written off the first couple of miles given the inclines, but the first mile bleep gave a time 0f 7:29 - nicely on target. A relief, and I’d been feeling a lot better than expected (all those hill training sessions paying off!). The second mile was even better, but probably too fast: 7:05. Perhaps because there was a bit of downhill along the way, and the crowds were easing out a bit.

After last year, when I found it all very interesting, the run over the Kingston bridge (M8 bridge through Glasgow) felt a bit of a silly diversion, so I was glad to get off the bridge and onto the flat straight that led through to Paisley Road West. Mile 3 at 7:02 was another speedy split, so eased off and found a more reasonable pace, but still fast at 7:12, but seeing Frances gave me some encouragement and passing some fellow club runners I’d been eyeing as a target perhaps helped too. Mile 5 at 7:30 was a little under pace, but a few windy corners, and I wasn’t too bothered. More than enough ‘in the bag’. Time for a wave as I passed through Bellahouston Park, where Frances’ brothers Brendan and Paul, who were with my nephew Nathan (looking very confused as to what all these silly people were doing). But I did manage to get a bit confused by the changed water layouts (a feature of the race).

Mile 6 at 7:18, and Mile 7 at 7:23, and feeling very comfortable, but not wanting to push some as I knew Pollok Park was coming up, and it always catches me out, despite doing most of my training there and knowing it’s inclines inside out. Through the park saw Mile 8 at 7:31, which was better than I expected, and Mile 9, just as we exited at 7:33 (missing Frances’ parents and assorted uncles and aunts, but hearing them). They’d changed the exit from the park at the last minute (as far as I can tell), so a nasty incline was inserted by the Burrell collection, but pleased my times weren’t too affected. I’d also passed a Fetchie (Alex) from the 1 mile challenge a few months back suffering from stitch. Something I’d never experienced in a race, but come mile 10 (07:30) I was starting to feel a bit in my left side. That said, it could also have been trying to drink water. I knew I needed some, but struggled with it. So mile 11 was at 7:34 pace. This was through the dull streets into town, so whilst the end was almost in sight, it was ‘dig deep’ time.

Another sighting of Frances around the 12 mile mark (7:27), and just over a mile to go. Whilst by now feeling really rather tired, I managed a 7:13 (thousands of people lining the finish straight must have helped too), and I was across the line in 1:36:46, a full minute faster than even my most optimistic time prediction, and very safely under my target of 1:40. That said, I’m not looking forward to the finish-straight pictures that are usually available, which will probably have me pulling a very odd expression!

I’d largely made good progress throughout, and didn’t really lose too many places once I’d taken them. I fell in with a few people along the way. I was quite glad to see a chap with loud headphones disappear off into the distance. Grrr!!! Similarly, the chap with the very noisy breathing/nose-blowing (what was that noise! Sounded like a dog sneezing…), I was glad to get some distance ahead of him! It’s amusing what can annoy/inspire you to push that bit harder whilst you’re running!

Along the way I was boosted by the support from the Bellahouston Road Runner supporters. Many of the club runners who weren’t taking part in the Half (many did the 10k earlier) were along the route crying out names or just “Come on Bella!”, which really made a massive difference. If there was a club-supporters championship, I’m pretty sure Bella would be up there at the top!!

Chuffed to bits with my time, and delighted to have finished the season in such fashion. I’m deferring thought of targets for next year for some time, but already eagerly looking forward to the next few races. I’ve a 10 mile race next weekend down in Cumbria (where I’m away for a short holiday), and am looking forward to finding a decent 10k somewhere to mount an attack on my 45:01 time!

Links

• Full results
• 2008 Glasgow Half Marathon pictures (Bella Selection), courtesy of Frances
• 2008 Glasgow Half Marathon Pictures, the full 245 picture set, including Beagles!
• Norman’s writeup
• Ian Goudie pics, plus a special mention for being the loudest supporter!
• Jim’s pics
• Captain Caveman’s pics selection

News came through late yesterday that Scottish ministers weren’t going to call in the Go Ape proposal, handing it back to the inept at Glasgow council.

I suppose the indecision was writ large in the various delays in coming down off the fence. Once was understandable. Twice just silly. It was turning into a farce, but one with a painfully inevitable punchline.

A newsletter to campaigners last night from savepollokpark.com shows the fight is continuing. There’s a sound legal challenge underway, the opposition of the NTS and maxwell family, and a number of significant issues the council has to see resolved before trees get cut down and rich businessmen start swinging from the trees of Pollok park.