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Over the last few days I’ve been thinking through the repurcussions of the election result… Northern Ireland; Blairs tenure; Blunkett returns; Browns involvement; The European Question; the “Opposition”…

All this and more, you lucky, lucky people…

Northern Ireland

So the news today is that David Trimble has resigned as leader of the UUP having lost his seat in the general election. Northern Ireland politics is an order of magnitude more complex, impassioned and confusing than what we’re used to on the mainland of the British Isles. From my poor understanding of the politics there, that he has lost his seat is clearly a loss for the process as a whole for the main unionist party there is now the DUP, a party whom I find I’m afraid to say I simply cannot listen to, for all their rhetoric, arrogance and refusal to move from entrenched principles, particularly from their leader Ian Paisley.

The situation seems there seems to be one of polarisation, as both communities retreat to entrenched positions for fear of “loosing” more of what they see as precious. But it’s a shame, as both sides need to continue to make concessions - more now than ever before - to put the fragile peace on a firm foundation, a peace that is now such a benefit to all there. David Trimble was probably right to resign, as his party was clearly loosing ground, but I hope that the party sticks to their principles, and maintains a more liberal approach to dialogue, concession and tolerance in the hope that the electorate will see the folly of entrenchment. It’s surely time for the people of Northern Ireland to accept that discourse and pragmatism must replace the bigotry and bitterness that polarisation produces.

Blunkett returns

Back on the mainland, and the news that David Blunkett is back in the cabinet is very bad news in my view. Blunkett was one of the most totalitarian and control-freak home office policy makers we’ve had the misfortune of experiencing, and he’s now let loose on Work and Pensions. That Blair is prepared to bring him back immediately is disconcerting. Whilst Blunkett may well have been “cleared” in an investigation he himself set up, there is a serious level of doubt in his propriety. More worrying was that he demonstrated such shockingly poor decisions in his conduct both before and after his resignation, I have very grave reservations about how he can conduct himself in a crisis.

Blair’s tenure

On Sunday we heard that many Labour backbenchers were calling for Blair to go, something I think would make a lot of sense. Blair is now very much damaged goods, and it’s fair to say that if it hadn’t been for the high profile presence of Gordon Brown, many more seats would have been lost. That they won in spite of, rather than because, of Blair is a telling sentiment.

I personally would much rather Gordon Brown took over as Prime Minister. Heck I might even have been persuaded to vote Labour if he had been at the helm, although I’d like to hear more of how he’d distinguish himself and what direction he would steer this country before committing myself. I was also helped by a marginal rebel of a Labour MP here which would have eased things somewhat.

Tony Blair was incompetent in the extreme regarding how he directed the process leading up to the decision to invade Iraq. He has to take responsibility for a government, intelligence and military advice process that was so full of sofas, short-cuts, previously agreed decisions and misleading public pronouncements that it’s negligent that he has not admitted culpability. So much for ministerial responsibility. That the parliamentary Labour party is making rumbling noises so soon after the election, and with such a strong contender to replace him, makes me think that 2005 could well be the last full year of Blair as Prime Minister. Nothing short of a Euro-referendum win or a solid “win” in next years council elections can save him now.

Browns involvement

So as the heir apparent, Gordon Brown is likely to be a dominating force in the parliament. I hope he will use his power to redress some of the problems which Blair created, especially the lack of accountability by the executive to our elected representatives. Brown could steal a march on Blair in “his place in history” by pushing for fundamental reform of the way government is carried out in this country. He strikes me as a much less “presidential” man, with much more deeply felt convictions.

Unfortunately, it’s actually quite hard to gauge him so closely does he play his cards to his chest. I’m looking forward to memoirs of course, to finally find out about the Blair vs Brown governmental disagreements that are so widely reported, but still hard to picture given their public personas. I do hope he tries to shake the need to fiddle that seems to be the hallmark of many of his budgets, and takes a broader brush.

The European question

Blair may choose to fall on his sword after a referendum on the European constitution. It’s worth pointing out that four countries have to reject the constitution before it’s invalid, and we’re already committed to a referendum along with France. If France rejects it, the task here will be harder, but still worth pursuing, as there is a need in this country to “clear the air” of this most important of issues.

I’m very much in favour of the European Union, the common market and the European Single Currency. I’d like Britain to approve the constitution, and join the Euro, although I think both could do with some reform, not least the Common Agricultural policy. Despite reforming from within as a better way of driving reform (rather than heckling from the sidelines), I suppose the deep-rooted conservatism (note the lower case ‘c’!) in this country means we’re likely to remain on the side-lines for some time.

I expect the referendum will be lost. The lack of a free and open press on this issue is worrying. Whilst I’m sure the BBC would do a good job of impartially reporting the issues on both sides, the knee-jerk and short sighted, even “little Englander” editorials of the right wing tabloid press would be an impossible challenge to overcome for the “yes” campaign. The “European Question” is a little more open up here in Scotland, but throughout the UK I think a greater level of transparency and more awareness of where the EU benefits us would make for an easier job on the part of the pro-European camp.

The “opposition”

Oh dear. Oh deary deary dear. The Conservative party seem to have forgotten every single one of the lessons to be learnt after the last general election. A leader “resigning” (well, announcing he’s resigning) before the last ballot had been counted just isn’t what’s needed right now. We have front-bench opposition spokesmen resigning already! The Tory party seem intent on turning their fire on themselves, when they should be focusing on the first term of the new parliament, which will include a Queen’s speech in only a few weeks.

There will be many policies put forward that need to be properly scrutinised, and whilst they were defeated, together with the other opposition parties and dissenters from within the Labour party ranks, they have more power to prevent bad legislation (such as ID cards) appearing on the statute books. But this basic principle seems beyond the Tory party. They seem intent on pressing the self-destruct button over and over again (they have to, I suppose, as it never seems to quite work), and it leaves a nasty taste in the mouth (well, the Tory party do that anyway but it’s a particular post-election nasty taste on top of the more normal one).

As a bit of Liberal anyway I am pleased the Lib Dems have more of a voice, although all said it’s a shame it wasn’t larger still. It smacks a little of a missed opportunity, but given most of their “easy” targets were Tory seats, and that tactic failed dismally it’s not really that much of a surprise. Plus the first past the post system punishes them heavily when you analyse their share of the popular vote. None the less, they will no doubt make themselves very vocal, and with the Tory party in continued disarray and a poor set of leadership candidates on offer, this may still work to further their cause. Should Charles Kennedy should stay as leader? I’m inclined to think so (despite the hateful campaigns in the press based on nothing more than here-say) as he consistently polled well amongst the electorate. I just hope they can put out a more consistent and appealing message in the next few years.

All in all…

I like the shape of the political world at the moment. There’s more power to the opposition, and dissenters in the Labour ranks (including my MP) should mean for a more conciliatory government. The Tory party’s result belies deep problems within the party still, but their increased voice - along with the Liberals - should hopefully make for better and more rigourous opposition.

This entry was posted on Monday, May 9th, 2005 at 10:36 am and is filed under British General Election, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.