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Certain events over the last few years have left me feeling decidedly uneasy about the likely shape of geopolitics in the next few decades. Much of it centres around the increasingly brazen actions by Russia, which largely seem to be influenced by the availability of natural mineral resource.

I suppose it all started with the Ukrainian presidential elections of 2004, with the so-called Orange Revolution that followed. It was representative of the largely divided leanings between those that wanted to see Ukraine look to the West, or to Russia in the East. A couple of years later and suddenly Russia is threatening Ukraine over gas supplies, which raises awareness in this country about our increasing dependency on gas resource, and an increasing awareness that we’re heavily dependent on Gas, especially as north sea resources start to decline. It’s even happening now, most recently with Gazprom threatening Belarus.

We also have the increasing business pressure on western companies, such as BP selling it’s stake in Siberian gas fields to Gazprom.

It paints a picture of an increasingly powerful country starting to re-assert itself after the fall of communism, to ensure it’s voice is properly heard on the world stage. Perhaps it’s best demonstrated with the bizarre radioactive poisoning of a critic of the regime in a central London restaurant (which is close to one of my clients, and I’ve eaten there a couple of times since the events). Refusing to extradite the chief suspect has led to a diplomatic spat between the UK and Russia. On the one hand Russia is aware that the UK is a key source of business finance, but on the other it seems, from my limited perspective at least, that it’s brazenly doing as it fancies without repercussion. The UK will continue to do profitable business with Russia.

But gas and poisoned spies are just one part of it. The latest battle that seems to be brewing is over the ownership of the North Pole. Over the last few weeks there have been some news items that seem to hit a more comical note than anything else, until you dig into the story: Russia plants flags on the sea-bed under the pole, in some throw-back to colonial flag planting.

It’s all because of the huge mineral resource wealth underneath this part of the world. As oil and gas prices rise, it becomes increasingly economical to extract the otherwise difficult/expensive to extract resources. That’s precisely why Russia, Canada and Denmark are eyeing up the region and defining borders. The problem centres on how borders are drawn on an (ellipsoid) sphere to an arbitrary point, from varying borders. Entirely unsurprisingly each nation seems to favour the mechanism that increases the area under it’s regions. The BBC has a good summary map.

Today comes news that Canada is building military bases in the far north. No prizes for working out the reason why. And there was my thinking the Canadians were the quiet chaps at the front of the class who just got on with it without making a fuss.

Vladimir Putin, as the president of Russia, is currently set to leave office in 2008. There have been rumours he may seek to modify the constitution to allow a third term, although - like any good politician - he denies such considerations.

So it all strikes me that there are some ominous noises coming from Russia, centred around the power it appears to be keen to extract from its immense mineral wealth, and the dependency we in the developed world have on these materials. Throw in rumours and stories of corruption, jailed or expatriate billionaires, and it’s hard to work out the real picture of the real Russians.

I’m not sure how many Russians I have actually met, much less any idea of what they think about these issues. I suspect I could probably count the number on one hand. I’ve certainly only read one Russian classic (Crime and Punishment). I certainly consider myself a naturally curious and interested person, keen to learn about, understand and embrace different countries and cultures. I want to visit Moscow and St Petersburg, two of Europes most historic and important cities, if only I can manage to persuade Frances.

Perhaps I’m being overly paranoid. Perhaps it’s another case of the politicians being unrepresentative of the majority of people (See Bush and the Americans he purports to represent), or perhaps there really is a desire by the Russian people to see their place in the political world re-asserted after the fall of communism. We should certainly all strive to build bridges and understanding between our nations at the personal level, no matter what happens at the political level.

As with many things, Winston Churchill was frequently a man able to speak wisely of events, both of his time and over the subsequent years. His famous quote from 1939 comes to mind:

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.

Where is Russian national interest now? Should we be worried? I’m certainly starting wonder we may be seeing far more overt, perhaps even hostile, geopolitical manoeuvrings in the years ahead - from Russia and other countries seeking to control resources. All as the true picture of our natural mineral resource emerges.

See also…

• BBC ‘Have your say’ forum: Are you worried about the future of the Arctic?